Brent and TTF Price Forecast for 2025: A Year of Unwelcome Stability for Natural Gas and Big Swings for Oil

As we look ahead to 2025, our detailed analysis of Brent crude oil and Title Transfer Facility (TTF) natural gas prices reveals an intriguing landscape marked by gradual trends and surprising discontinuity compared to previous years.

TTF prices: seasonal differences disappear

Our forecast for TTF prices in 2025 presents an unwelcome surprise as TTF prices are expected to remain steadily within a narrow range of €46 to €48 for much of the year. This contrasts with historical patterns, where prices typically exhibited seasonal dips during the summer months.

• January to June: TTF prices are expected to start the year at an average of €48 in January, then declining steadily to around €45-46 by June.

• July to December: Prices will remain flat through the summer before they set on the course of a steady increase, closing the year at an average of $48 in December.

  
  

The results are primarily due to the markedly different winter conditions than what Europe had experienced in the previous two years.  Between October 1 and December 31, 2024, Europe withdrew over 250 TWh of gas from underground storages, the second-largest withdrawal for this period and significantly above the 10-year average of 165 TWh. This has clearly been a response to the colder-than-average winter and disruptions in supply, particularly from Russia.

By the end of the 2024/2025 winter, European gas storage levels are expected to be much lower than in recent years when milder winters prevailed. As Europe enters 2025 with diminished reserves, TTF prices will likely experience upward pressure throughout the year, especially during the peak demand months.

Brent’s Highs and Lows: Seasonal Variability within a Stable Framework

While Brent prices in 2025 are generally forecasted to be stable, some seasonal variability will persist:

• January - April: Prices will hover between $78 and $80.

• May: A sudden jump over $81-82$

• June – Agusut: A steady decline is expected, down to between $76 – 78, reflecting a temporary dip in demand.

• August - December: Prices will rebound, surpassing $80 and reaching an average of $85-87 by December.

  
  

This predictable rise in prices in the latter half of the year aligns with global economic recovery and increasing energy demands. On the other hand, this also represents a continuity from 2024, whereby prices are unlikely to decrease in the year ahead significantly.

Conclusion

The energy markets in 2025 are set to follow an intriguing course, with Brent and TTF prices defying traditional seasonal patterns. Brent’s steady growth and TTF’s upward trajectory underscore a year shaped by unique market conditions and the lingering impacts of a severe European winter. As always, stakeholders should remain vigilant for potential disruptions that could reshape these trends.

Risks to the Forecast

While our analysis provides a comprehensive outlook, several factors could disrupt these projections. Unforeseen geopolitical events, such as armed conflicts or trade disruptions (including duty increases), as well as global crises like pandemics, could significantly alter the supply-demand balance and price trajectories.