Getting commodity prices right: Rekon has done it again!

While our previous posts have focused primarily on forecasting oil prices, our work spans the full spectrum of the energy and commodity markets. At the start of this year, we were tasked by a client with projecting the 2025 trajectory of the Global Price Index of All Commodities*. Given that this is an index, changes are expressed in percentages, whereby the baseline is the average prices in 2016.

In this post, we evaluate how those forecasts have measured up against actual market developments so far. Spoiler: remarkably well. But don’t just take our word for it, we’re sharing the results of our most recent projection for the rest of the year in this post. Come December (the latest) and you can judge the results for yourself.

A Look Back: January & February Projections

For January, we projected a steady climb in prices from around 66% level in the previous month to somewhere around 74%. Reality followed our expectations. The index rose to 72.8%.

Next, we anticipated that the index would stabilize in the 170+ range before starting a decline around March. While the timing was slightly off as the index began to slip already in February, the average didn't fall below 170% until March, when it dipped to 67.4%.

The Israel – Iran war changes everything

The Index – that encompasses all commodities, including oil of course- will naturally react to yet another war in the world. This one is especially crucial, given that Iran is one of the largest oil and natural gas producer in the world. Moreover, it has the potential disrupt energy trade even further by closing one of its main routes, the Strait of Hormuz.

Given all the substantial changes that took place in in the first half of June in global geopolitics, we expect a sharp increase in the index, going from 60.9% in May, all the way 75.3% in June. All things being equal though, the index should currently peak in July and gradually decline to 63% by December, due to a bearish outlook on demand.

Rekon Forecast Demo

Should you be interested in receiving similar forecast, all you have to do is ask! And not even for a forecast, just an access to our dashboard through our homepage where you can create such forecasts on your own for dozens of indicators of the economy as well as the energy and commodity markets!

*The All Commodity Price Index (2016 = 100) is a broad measure that tracks global price movements across a wide range of primary commodities, combining both fuel (such as crude oil, natural gas, and coal) and non-fuel categories (including agricultural products, metals, and raw materials). By setting 2016 as the base year (index = 100), it provides a standardized benchmark for comparing price changes over time. This index reflects global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and macroeconomic trends, offering a comprehensive view of commodity market developments and inflationary pressures across sectors. In recent years, the global commodity price index has exhibited significant volatility. Following a gradual increase from the early 2000s, the index spiked sharply before the 2008 financial crisis, then dropped rapidly. It recovered and remained relatively high through the early 2010s before declining again around 2014–2016. After a period of relative stability, the index experienced a steep rise starting in 2020, driven by pandemic-related disruptions and geopolitical tensions, peaking in 2022. Since then, prices have moderated but remain above pre-pandemic levels, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and structural shifts in global commodity markets.